Bosong Zhang

Journal of Climate Manuscript Draft (JCLI-D-25-0570)

Enhanced Efficacy Amplifies Tropical Cyclones Intensification in Warmer Climates

High-resolution warming experiments indicate that intensified tropical-cyclone tails arise from compounded increases in potential intensity and storm efficacy.

Efficacy Framework TC Intensity Response Warmer-Climate Scaling

Cat 3-5 Increase

Rising efficacy is associated with a marked increase in major-hurricane frequency.

Intensity Shift

Enhanced efficacy amplifies thermodynamic limits affecting realized storm intensity.

Mechanistic Lens

Combining potential intensity and efficacy helps explain stronger warming responses.

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Manuscript Citation

Zhang, B., B. J. Soden, G. A. Vecchi, and W. Yang: Enhanced Efficacy Amplifies Tropical Cyclones Intensification in Warmer Climates. Journal of Climate manuscript draft, JCLI-D-25-0570.

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Scientific Logic

  • Question: Can potential intensity (PI) alone explain warming-driven intensification of tropical cyclones?
  • Method: High-resolution warming experiments with probability-distribution reconstruction separating PI changes from efficacy changes.
  • Mechanism: Warming increases both the thermodynamic ceiling (PI) and storm efficacy in approaching that ceiling; these effects compound.
  • Main Findings: Large increases in intense storms are better explained by combined PI+efficacy amplification than by PI change alone.

Scientific Question

How does changing environmental-controls efficacy alter tropical cyclone intensity and major-storm frequency in warmer climates beyond traditional potential-intensity diagnostics?

Study Approach

  • High-resolution simulations to separate potential-intensity and efficacy influences.
  • Diagnosis of thermodynamic limits and realized storm-intensity responses.
  • Intensity-distribution analysis focused on Category 3-5 behavior under warming.

Key Findings

  • PI increase alone underpredicts changes in the strongest-storm probability tail.
  • Efficacy gains materially amplify high-intensity cyclone frequencies in warmer climates.
  • Mechanistic attribution requires joint PI-efficacy decomposition rather than PI-only scaling.

Figures from the Study

From manuscript draft JCLI-D-25-0570.

Figure A (Draft)

Draft figure on efficacy and tropical cyclone intensification
Efficacy-related diagnostics highlighting intensified responses in warmer-climate simulations.

Figure B (Draft)

Draft figure on tropical cyclone intensity distribution changes
Distribution-level changes linked to efficacy amplification and increased major-storm occurrence.
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